Is there really a skilled workforce crisis

Lately, it seems that there has been a direct push towards training as a solution for the ‘skilled workforce crisis.’ There are two major issues with these concepts.  The first is that training is important, but it is not the only solution to the changing workforce.  The second is that there has been an assumption that there is a skilled workforce ‘crisis.’

As we approach 2014, there will be a shift in the workforce.  There are four basic age groups:

• 1920’s-1930’s: A noticeable reduction in birthrates occurred, referred to as the ‘birth dearth;’
• 1946-1964: The ‘baby-boomer’ era which went along with a significant increase in the US fertility rate;
• 1965-1976: The ‘baby-bust’ era refers to the era where the number of births decreased again; and,
• 1976-2000: The ‘baby-boom-echo’ is comprised of the children of the baby-boomers after 1976.

The birth dearth generation has by and large left the workforce while the baby-boomer generation represents the ‘aging workforce.’ At the present time, the baby-bust generation is entering the workforce as the baby-boom-echo generation is just starting into the workforce.

At the present time, it is expected that labor growth will slow to 1% from 1.2% as the economy adjusts itself to support the aging baby-boomers.  In the meantime, the 16-24 year old generation workforce will not increase as this age group will tend towards advanced post high school education.  Instead, they will tend to enter the workforce between the ages of 25-34.  In the meantime, the 65+ age group will grow by over 73% in the workforce and 55-64 year olds will grow by 42% in the workforce.  As there is a concurrent decrease in manufacturing jobs, there will be an adjustment through 2014, just prior to an increasing consumer base and workforce from 2015 to 2024.

The population issue is no different than it was, twice, in the past.  The more recent issue was from 1900 to 1910 where 20% of the workforce was comprised of children aged 10 through 15.  At the time, the life expectancy of men was 46.3 years and 48.3 years for women.  Additionally, there was a large influx of immigrants which kept the unemployment level at about 15% and, if working conditions were dirty, dangerous or otherwise unsatisfactory, the worker did not have any choices as others were always waiting for their position.

With recent publicity of the appearance of a workforce ‘crisis’ as the workforce ages, a number of businesses appeared in similar fashion as when the ‘Y2K crisis’ occurred prior to 2000.  Most of these businesses focus on ways to maintain the present business and skilled trade environment with little consideration to the changes in the environment.  While this appeals to managers following recent drama and crisis reports in the media, these will have limited to negative impact on the profitability of a company.

While training is important, it is more important to evaluate the company’s actual needs in a number of areas including changes to how work is performed, technology and changes to maintenance processes.  Once these areas are understood, then appropriate training or consulting assistance should be selected.

In effect, what we discovered while developing the “Skilled Workforce in the 21st Century” study was that most of the studies being touted by media usually were geared towards the ends of the organizations that developed them.  For instance, the US Commerce Commission pushed a declining workforce AND a declining population based upon both Census Bureau and United Nations Population studies.  In evaluating the actual cited studies, it was found that the information used was misleading in that the Census Bureau specifically stated against using it for what the commission used it for and they selected the worst-case situation in the United Nations study (the most likely scenario shows a slight slowing then growth through 2300).  The purpose was to present a case to the government in order to lobby for their position on immigration.

We basically found that there is an ongoing evolution to the skilled workforce and business, in general, that has continued since the beginning of the industrial revolution from about 1750.

The conclusion is that the skilled workforce lives longer, produces longer and is more productive than in the past.  While there will be an increase in the 55 and older workforce, the younger workforce will begin entering the workplace later, after the age of 25, and will begin to fill out the workforce starting in about 2015 as the majority of baby-boomers retire.  In the meantime, there are changes in the makeup of industry and other areas (that we will address in the ‘Maintenance and Management Communication Study’ to be available with the next newsletter), that will require some changes and understanding of your business prior to rushing into ‘solutions’ that resemble the mad rush just prior to 11:59pm, December 31, 1999.  So, beware quick fix ‘training solutions’ that look to maintain your business in the status quo while remembering that correct training for your workforce is important along with technology and evolution.

Sincerely,
Howard W Penrose, Ph.D., CMRP
President
SUCCESS by DESIGN Reliability Services

http://www.motordiagnostics.com

and

Executive Director, Institute of Electrical Motor Diagnostics, Inc.

http://www.iemd.org