June 05, 2006
Impact of EMD Workforce Part 2
There have been media reports about the impending workforce crisis. How is this crisis affecting the electrical motor diagnostics industry? How serious is the impact? What can be done about it?
Howard W Penrose, Ph.D., CMRP
President, SUCCESS by DESIGN
The baby-boom echo generation will generate a new increase in the workforce in about 2020.
One of the primary reasons for the cycle is that, as the human populace is living longer, young adults tend to stay in school longer (ie: college). The result is a slight additional dip in the availability of workers. In fact, for the period of 2004 to 2014, it is expected that the growth of the 16-24 year old workforce will be stagnant (not decreasing, not increasing) in numbers entering the workforce, the 24-34 year range will decrease slightly and the ages 45 and older will increase dramatically (per 2004 US Cencus Bureau Reports). At the same time, according to the United Nations World Fertility Rate report (tracking expected fertility rates through the year 3000), the increase in births will slow then increase as the 21st Century progresses, in the United States.
Over the period of 2004 through 2014, it is expected that there will be a decrease in skilled workforce jobs throughout the United States, while there will be a dramatic increase in both high education, high paying service industry jobs and low education, low paying service industry jobs (combined, make up 60% of new jobs).
So, while there will be a stagnation in younger employees entering the workforce, and a dramatic increase in the older workforce, there are some that will view the change as a crisis. Now, if you view the term ‘crisis’ as representing a turning point in the evolution of an industry, then new opportunities arise.
Starting in the 1960’s, accelerating in the 1970’s, and dominating through to the present, is the continued automation of low-skilled manufacturing positions through robotics. This, and computer technology, allowed for a number of concepts including the Theory of Constraints, Lean Manufacturing, and other labor reduction and time saving philosophies. These were involved in manufacturing evolutions that improved corporate competitiveness as the world turned to a global economy with improvements in communication technologies.
Specialists in vibration, infrared, ultrasonics and new technologies took root in the 1980’s and 1990’s. For the most part, some maintenance and reliability professionals saw the opportunity and challenge of what was then referred to as Predictive Technology (PdM) and is often now referred to as Condition-Based Testing. With the exception of infrared technology, the majority of PdM technologies were geared towards mechanical issues with new technologies, such as motor circuit analysis, motor current signature analysis and electrical signature analysis, entering the market later on.
For the most part, these technologies required the use of periodic testing through routes and trending. Some of the technologies, such as vibration analysis, lent themselves to be placed in permanent installations for remote, real-time, fault and alarm detection and analysis. In effect, some of the technologies began to become automated.
…. To be continued …
